Posted: 10/01/2004
Putin Ignores Advisors, Cuts Deal With EU On Kyoto
September 30, 2004 – Under orders from Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Russian Cabinet on Thursday approved the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, clearing the way for parliament to vote on the pact, which needs to be ratified by Russia to take effect. Experts from the National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA) said that this was a disappointing reversal, but a predictable one that came on the heals of an announcement by the European Union earlier this year of its backing for Russia to join the World Trade Organization.
“This just further confirms what we all knew; Kyoto is an economic treaty not an environmental treaty,” said NCPA Senior Fellow H. Sterling Burnett. “Everyone is jockeying for an improved economic position and, if they really do ratify the protocol – which still requires approval of the Russian Duma – Russia is gambling that joining the WTO and getting some European development dollars will outweigh its drag on the economy.”
“Vladimir Putin’s position regarding Kyoto has always carried a whiff of horse-trading,” said NCPA adjunct scholar Kenneth Green. “The Kyoto Protocol is raw political calculus: in a carbon-constrained world, the US – whose economy is structured on inexpensive, abundant energy – becomes less competitive. That’s what Europe wants, and what this is really all about.” Green also directs the Centre for Studies in Risk, Regulation and Environment at Canada’s Fraser Institute.
The NCPA noted that this decision ignores the considerable opposition of Putin’s own economic advisor and most Russian scientists. According to the Interfax news agency, Putin’s economic advisor Andrei Illarionov told the Cabinet: “It’s a political decision, it’s a forced decision. It’s not the decision we are making with pleasure.”
Illarionov has argued that ratifying Kyoto would hamper Russia’s economic growth and make Putin’s goal of doubling gross domestic product in a decade unattainable. According to the Associated Press, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov said on a trip to Netherlands Thursday that the Duma would likely have a “difficult debate” on Kyoto – a statement that appeared to signal that Russian officialdom is still divided on the issue despite the Cabinet’s support of the bill.
The NCPA noted that regardless of Russia’s final decision, the treaty will still do nothing to prevent warming. In fact, if every signatory nation– including the U.S. – met their commitment under the agreement, the temperature would only be a ½ degree Fahrenheit cooler than it would be otherwise.
“Sadly, none of this realpolitik can change the reality that Kyoto offers no environmental benefit, nor any protection from the innately variable climate of our planet,” said Green. “Indeed, by instituting energy rationing, Kyoto will leave the world a poorer place, with less resilience to face climate challenges.”
Green, notes that governments of countries with weaker judicial systems than the US face little consequence for ratifying, then failing to meet Kyoto targets. “They won’t be held accountable either internally, or externally, beyond some haranguing from activist groups,” said Green.